Public Thesis Dashboard
10 active thesis · 535 edges · Monitored 24/7
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10 active535 edgesKalshi + PolymarketHeartbeat every 15 min
59%
DOGE cut federal workforce aggressively. Now those roles are needed for wartime — State Department,
35 edges-1.6%0m
9%
MAGA splits over Iran war. Anti-interventionist wing vs hawks. Joe Kent resignation is the signal. I
71 edges+2%14m
4%
Putin profits from Iran war oil prices. Russian military budget fully funded. Ukraine peace talks st
47 edges+7.3%0m
71%
US military assets pinned in Middle East — largest deployment since 2003. Pacific theater is exposed
17 edges+22%0m
73%
US freezes Russian assets, sanctions Iran, bombs Iran — each action tells the world the dollar syste
27 edges+12.1%0m
44%
Stagflation traps the Fed in an impossible triangle. Powell stays until Warsh confirmation. Trump in
15 edges-13.1%15m
5%
Oil above $100 drives electricity costs up. Data center operating costs surge. AI companies delay or
46 edges-0.7%14m
21%
Hormuz blockade disrupts fertilizer supply chains. Fertilizer prices spike, US farm costs surge, foo
92 edges+1.8%14m
41%
The Hormuz Strait is America's final battle — not because it will lose militarily, but because the c
88 edges-6.7%14m
5%
Trump cannot exit the Iran war gracefully. His operating system does not support de-escalation. Each
97 edges+13.5%2d
Recent Signals
—4%The single most important development is the Reuters report confirming that Iran14m
—9%Most important development: Congressional Republicans are on track to vote DOWN 14m
—21%No material change to thesis confidence. USDA confirmation that farm input costs14m
—5%No material change to thesis. The most notable development is that WTI oil marke14m
—41%No material change. Recent events are routine heartbeat price moves across gas p14m
—73%No material change. The two events are minor price drifts on Bitcoin below-thres14m
Top Edges
K100¢+85¢Will the 7-day moving average of daily vessel transit calls
K1¢+79¢Will the 7-day moving average of daily vessel transit calls
P18¢+78¢Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hor
K92¢+77¢Will the 7-day moving average of daily vessel transit calls
K100¢+75¢Will the 7-day moving average of daily vessel transit calls
P18¢+73¢Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hor
P23¢+70¢US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by...?: April 30
P11¢+68¢What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in April 2026?: ↑ $140
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