How likely is "US-Iran military conflict escalates through summer 2025"?

Our causal model estimates 11% probability for this factor. This is driven by 3 sub-factors.

How likely is "Visible MAGA coalition fracture over interventionism"?

Our causal model estimates 78% probability for this factor. This is driven by 4 sub-factors.

How likely is "Economic pain: gas above $4 and rising farm costs materialize"?

Our causal model estimates 20% probability for this factor. This is driven by 3 sub-factors.

How likely is "GOP midterm advantage is consumed: House control in play"?

Our causal model estimates 17% probability for this factor. This is driven by 3 sub-factors.

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Will Iran War Split MAGA and Flip 2026 House Control?

Updated 1h ago· Published Mar 24active

Current Assessment

Our causal model estimates 9% probability. Kalshi markets price the top related contract (Will Trump declare war on Iran by...?: April 30) at 2.5¢, while our thesis implies 65¢ — a +62.5¢ edge. Across 64 tracked contracts, we see systematic mispricing.

Latest evaluation (5h ago): The single most important development is confirmation across multiple major outlets that the MAGA fracture is real and war-driven — Kent resigned, Massie claims half of MAGA is anti-war, and the Bloomberg 'MAGA Is Split' framing directly validates n2 and n6.1. Thesis confidence nudges up from 0.08 t

Thesis

MAGA splits over Iran war. Anti-interventionist wing vs hawks. Joe Kent resignation is the signal. If war continues through summer with gas above $4 and farm costs rising, GOP midterm advantage consumed by its own war. House and Senate control in play.

Confidence

9% █░░░░░░░░░

Implied Return

+2.4%

Contracts

71tracked

Track Record

Hit Rate

39%of edges moved toward thesis

Edges Tracked

Avg Movement

0.0¢

Confidence Over Time

Mar 24Apr 1

Implied Returns

Will average **gas prices** be above or below $6.80 by Dec 31, 2026?9¢→51¢+466.7%

Will the 7-day moving average of daily vessel transit calls as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 5 on Apr 1, 2026?72¢→18.5¢+191.1%

Republican House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?: 190-19414¢→31¢+121.4%

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028: Joe Kent0.65¢→1¢+53.8%

Will average **gas prices** be above or below $4.10 by Dec 31, 2026?11¢→16.5¢+50%

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028: Thomas Massie1.55¢→2¢+29%

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?33.5¢→17.5¢+24.1%

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028: Tulsi Gabbard0.85¢→1¢+17.6%

Weekly Analysis

Episode 4·2026-03-25 – 2026-04-01·▲ 2%

MAGA-splits thesis flat at 10% — limited movement as midterm dynamics consolidate

Causal Model

Each factor has an estimated probability. Changes propagate through the tree to update overall confidence.

n1US-Iran military conflict escalates through summer 202511%█░░░░░░░░░

n1.1US conducts sustained air campaign or ground operations against Iran22%██░░░░░░░░

n1.2Iran retaliates in ways that force continued US engagement10%█░░░░░░░░░

n1.3No ceasefire or diplomatic off-ramp is reached before September 202532%███░░░░░░░

n2Visible MAGA coalition fracture over interventionism78%████████░░

n2.1Joe Kent resigns or publicly breaks with Trump over Iran policy95%██████████

n2.2Multiple MAGA-aligned House members vote against war authorization or funding38%████░░░░░░

n2.3Right-wing media splits (e.g., Tucker Carlson vs. hawkish outlets)88%█████████░

n2.4MAGA primary challengers emerge on anti-war platforms for 20266%█░░░░░░░░░

n3Economic pain: gas above $4 and rising farm costs materialize20%██░░░░░░░░

n3.1National average gas price exceeds $4/gallon by summer 202524%██░░░░░░░░

n3.2Farm input costs rise significantly due to conflict98%██████████

n3.3Voters attribute economic pain to the war and to the GOP55%██████░░░░

n4GOP midterm advantage is consumed: House control in play17%██░░░░░░░░

n4.1Generic congressional ballot shifts to D+3 or better by mid-202634%███░░░░░░░

n4.2GOP incumbents in swing districts face depressed turnout from base fracture20%██░░░░░░░░

n4.3Democrats win House majority in November 20265%█░░░░░░░░░

n5Senate control comes into play for Democrats in 20264%░░░░░░░░░░

n5.1At least 2-3 GOP-held Senate seats become competitive due to war backlash11%█░░░░░░░░░

n5.2MAGA primary fights produce weak GOP Senate nominees20%██░░░░░░░░

n5.3Democrats win Senate majority in November 20268%█░░░░░░░░░

n6Conditional chain holds: war causes split causes economic pain causes electoral reversal0%░░░░░░░░░░

n6.1The MAGA split is primarily driven by the Iran war rather than other issues35%████░░░░░░

n6.2Economic pain is primarily war-driven rather than from other macro factors52%█████░░░░░

Market Edge Analysis

Contracts where market price diverges from thesis-implied value. Positive edge = market underprices this outcome.

	Contract	Market	Model	Edge	Spread	Depth (Bid/Ask)
P	Will Trump declare war on Iran by...?: April 30YES	3¢	65¢	+63¢	1¢	929/27
P	Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by...?: December 31NO	88¢	40¢	+48¢	1¢	9K/4K
P	Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by...?: June 30NO	70¢	25¢	+45¢	1¢	2K/5K
K	Will average gas prices be above or below $4.00 by Dec 31, 2026?YES	13¢	55¢	+43¢	17¢	191/371
K	Will the WTI front-month settle oil price be >106.99 on Apr 3, 2026?YES	13¢	55¢	+43¢	1¢	673/3K
K	Will average gas prices be above $4.200?YES	6¢	45¢	+39¢	2¢	230/7K
P	US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China?NO	63¢	25¢	+38¢	2¢	396/505
P	Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by April 30?YES	8¢	45¢	+37¢	2¢	6K/1K
P	Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by...?: May 15NO	52¢	15¢	+37¢	1¢	7K/1K
K	Will average gas prices be above $6.00 by Dec 31, 2026?YES	25¢	60¢	+35¢	22¢	114/753
K	Will average gas prices be above $4.160?YES	26¢	60¢	+35¢	3¢	39/68
K	Will average gas prices be above or below $4.10 by Dec 31, 2026?YES	17¢	50¢	+34¢	7¢	3K/1K
K	Will average gas prices be above $4.240?YES	2¢	35¢	+33¢	4¢	0/13K
P	US x Iran ceasefire before Oil hits $120?NO	46¢	15¢	+31¢	1¢	2K/3K
P	What will happen before Kevin Warsh is confirmed?: US x Iran CeasefireNO	55¢	25¢	+30¢	3¢	3K/1K

Settled Contracts

7 contracts resolved.

	Contract	Result	Model Said	Verdict
P	Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by March 31?	NO	YES @ 15¢	✗ wrong
P	Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?: April 30	NO	YES @ 12¢	✗ wrong
P	Republican Presidential Nominee 2028: Rand Paul	NO	YES @ 6¢	✗ wrong
P	Republican Presidential Nominee 2028: Tulsi Gabbard	NO	YES @ 6¢	✗ wrong
P	Republican Presidential Nominee 2028: Joe Kent	NO	YES @ 4¢	✗ wrong
P	Republican Presidential Nominee 2028: Josh Hawley	NO	YES @ 4¢	✗ wrong
K	Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal before April?	NO	NO @ 0¢	✓ correct

Recent Evaluations

Automated analysis runs every 15 minutes. Major events trigger immediate re-evaluation.

Apr 1 19:3110%(+2%)

The single most important development is confirmation across multiple major outlets that the MAGA fracture is real and war-driven — Kent resigned, Massie claims half of MAGA is anti-war, and the Bloom

Mar 31 02:007%(+1%)

No material change — the Bloomberg 'MAGA Is Split' coverage confirms the existing fracture narrative already priced into the causal tree, while Trump's 'unconditional surrender' declaration modestly r

Mar 30 16:007%(-3%)

No material change — the only event is a minor +5¢ price move on the Reza Pahlavi Iran visit market, which is tangential to the core thesis. More importantly, orderbook microstructure on the Pahlavi m

Mar 29 15:317%(-2%)

The single most important development is polling evidence that MAGA voters broadly support the Iran war, directly undermining the thesis's core assumption of a visible anti-interventionist fracture wi

Mar 28 10:166%(+2%)

The single most important development is the NYT confirmation of an active large-scale US military campaign against Iran as of March 2026, with Congress explicitly split over war powers — this materia

Mar 27 17:168%(-7%)

KILL CONDITION TRIGGERED: Israel-Iran ceasefire has been confirmed, with US White House announcing cheapest summer gas prices in four years at ~$3.20/gallon. This directly breaks the thesis's two core

Mar 26 19:0014%(+5%)

The single most important development is confirmation that gas prices have reached ~$4/gallon and farm costs are rising due to the Iran war by early 2026, with Democrats already framing this against t

Mar 25 02:1610%(+2%)

The single most important development is confirmation that US strikes on Iran occurred (June 2025) AND that $4 gas in some regions is explicitly being attributed to the Iran war — two key thesis nodes

Mar 24 07:1618%(-14%)

KILL CONDITION TRIGGERED: An Israel-Iran ceasefire has been reached, gas prices are falling toward $3 or below (expert forecast sub-$3 by September), and polling shows MAGA Republicans overwhelmingly

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