How likely is "Hormuz blockade occurs and persists"?

Our causal model estimates 85% probability for this factor. This is driven by 3 sub-factors.

How likely is "Fertilizer supply chains are meaningfully disrupted"?

Our causal model estimates 95% probability for this factor. This is driven by 3 sub-factors.

Can a Hormuz Blockade Flip GOP Farm States in 2026?

Updated 4m ago· Published Mar 24active

Current Assessment

Our causal model estimates 21% probability. Kalshi markets price the top related contract (Which countries will send warships through the Str) at 17.5¢, while our thesis implies 90¢ — a +72.5¢ edge. Across 71 tracked contracts, we see systematic mispricing.

Latest evaluation (4m ago): No material change to thesis confidence. The most notable signals are modest upward moves in CPI and gas price prediction markets consistent with inflationary pressure, and a slight softening from pre-blockade fertilizer stabilization data. The thesis remains bottlenecked at the political attributio

Thesis

Hormuz blockade disrupts fertilizer supply chains. Fertilizer prices spike, US farm costs surge, food inflation hits rural voters. GOP farm state advantage erodes heading into 2026 midterms. Timeline: planting season → harvest → food prices → November ballots.

Confidence

21% ██░░░░░░░░

Implied Return

+3.8%

Contracts

92tracked

Track Record

Hit Rate

29%of edges moved toward thesis

Edges Tracked

Avg Movement

+2.0¢

Confidence Over Time

Mar 24Apr 2

Implied Returns

Will average **gas prices** be above $5.80 by Dec 31, 2026?6¢→44¢+633.3%

Will the gold open price be above $4699.99 on Apr 3, 2026 at 5pm EDT?10¢→73¢+630%

Will the gold open price be above $4679.99 on Apr 3, 2026 at 5pm EDT?15¢→80¢+433.3%

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit__ by end of March?: ↑ $9541.5¢→98¢+136.1%

Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by end of April?: 20+84.5¢→65¢+125.8%

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit__ by end of March?: ↑ $10044.95¢→99¢+120.2%

Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of March?: 0-1057¢→100¢+75.4%

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 30-Apr 5): 45+2¢→3.5¢+75%

Weekly Analysis

Episode 4·2026-03-25 – 2026-04-01·▼ 28%

Fertilizer thesis dropped sharply from 49% to 21% as supply chains stabilized

Causal Model

Each factor has an estimated probability. Changes propagate through the tree to update overall confidence.

n1Hormuz blockade occurs and persists85%█████████░

n1.1Iran-linked military escalation triggers blockade95%██████████

n1.2Blockade persists beyond 2 weeks96%██████████

n1.3Insurance and shipping markets react severely95%██████████

n2Fertilizer supply chains are meaningfully disrupted95%██████████

n2.1Hormuz-transiting fertilizer is significant share of US supply95%██████████

n2.2Global price contagion affects US market96%██████████

n2.3No adequate substitution or restocking buffers disruption10%█░░░░░░░░░

n3Fertilizer price spike translates to major US farm cost surge96%██████████

n3.1Fertilizer prices rise 50%+ from baseline97%██████████

n3.2Farmers unable to hedge or reduce application75%████████░░

n3.3Energy cost co-movement amplifies input costs95%██████████

n4Farm cost surge causes visible food price inflation by fall 202686%█████████░

n4.1Crop yields decline or farmer margins compress enough to raise wholesale prices95%██████████

n4.2Food CPI increases notably (>1pp above trend) by Q3 202697%██████████

n4.3Retail food price pass-through is fast enough for election timing85%█████████░

n5Food inflation is salient to rural/farm-state voters and attributed to governing dynamics28%███░░░░░░░

n5.1Rural voters prioritize food/farm costs over other issues83%████████░░

n5.2Voters blame the party in power rather than external geopolitics34%███░░░░░░░

n5.3Media and political framing connects food prices to GOP governance57%██████░░░░

n6GOP farm-state advantage materially erodes in 2026 midterms7%█░░░░░░░░░

n6.1GOP competitive margins narrow by 5+ points in farm-state races11%█░░░░░░░░░

n6.2Democrats flip at least one farm-state Senate or gubernatorial seat4%░░░░░░░░░░

n6.3Farm-state erosion is distinguishable from national trends15%██░░░░░░░░

Market Edge Analysis

Contracts where market price diverges from thesis-implied value. Positive edge = market underprices this outcome.

	Contract	Market	Model	Edge	Spread	Depth (Bid/Ask)
P	Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30?: United StatesYES	18¢	90¢	+73¢	1¢	4K/9K
K	Will the 7-day moving average of daily vessel transit calls as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 3 on Apr 1, 2026?NO	94¢	25¢	+69¢	3¢	2K/578
P	Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by end of April?: 80+YES	12¢	70¢	+58¢	4¢	437/140
K	CPI year-over-year in Jul 2026?YES	3¢	55¢	+53¢	5¢	0/2K
K	Will average gas prices be above or below $2.30 by Dec 31, 2026?YES	28¢	80¢	+53¢	29¢	2K/148
K	Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before January 1, 2027?NO	80¢	30¢	+50¢	1¢	642/804
K	Will average gas prices be above or below $4.00 by Dec 31, 2026?YES	13¢	62¢	+50¢	15¢	196/146
K	CPI year-over-year in Jul 2026?YES	3¢	50¢	+48¢	5¢	0/1K
P	Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30?: United KingdomYES	8¢	55¢	+47¢	2¢	14K/7K
P	US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by...?: April 15YES	9¢	55¢	+47¢	1¢	26K/33K
P	Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March?: 20+YES	4¢	50¢	+47¢	1¢	2K/343
K	Will average gas prices be above $6.00 by Dec 31, 2026?YES	26¢	72¢	+46¢	18¢	51/118
P	US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by...?: April 30YES	25¢	70¢	+46¢	1¢	17K/15K
K	Will average gas prices be above $5.00 by Dec 31, 2026?YES	46¢	90¢	+44¢	56¢	205/17
P	Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by...?: December 31NO	88¢	45¢	+43¢	1¢	18K/3K

Settled Contracts

21 contracts resolved.

	Contract	Result	Model Said	Verdict
K	Will the 7-day moving average of daily vessel transit calls as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 1 on Apr 1, 2026?	YES	NO @ 15¢	✗ wrong
K	Will the 7-day moving average of daily vessel transit calls as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 30 on Apr 1, 2026?	NO	YES @ 80¢	✗ wrong
P	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit__ by end of March?: ↑ $105	NO	YES @ 60¢	✗ wrong
P	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit__ by end of March?: ↑ $110	NO	YES @ 55¢	✗ wrong
P	How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 30-Apr 5): <10	NO	YES @ 55¢	✗ wrong
K	Will the 7-day moving average of daily vessel transit calls as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 50 on Apr 1, 2026?	NO	YES @ 55¢	✗ wrong
P	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit__ by end of March?: ↑ $120	NO	YES @ 35¢	✗ wrong
P	U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by March 31?	NO	YES @ 35¢	✗ wrong
P	Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of March?: 10-20	NO	YES @ 30¢	✗ wrong
P	US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by...?: March 31	NO	YES @ 30¢	✗ wrong

Recent Evaluations

Automated analysis runs every 15 minutes. Major events trigger immediate re-evaluation.

Apr 2 00:3021%(0%)

No material change to thesis confidence. The most notable signals are modest upward moves in CPI and gas price prediction markets consistent with inflationary pressure, and a slight softening from pre

Apr 1 16:0121%(+2%)

The single most important development is the confirmed 25% US fertilizer supply shortfall for the upcoming planting season, corroborated by UN UNCTAD and multiple financial/news sources, which strengt

Mar 31 08:1622%(-2%)

No material new developments — the recent events are largely background data (USDA farm expense forecasts, fertilizer transport dashboards, historical rural inflation studies) and routine price moveme

Mar 30 00:4622%(+4%)

The single most important development is Iran's IRGC commanders explicitly declaring the Strait of Hormuz closed and threatening to set any transiting ships ablaze — combined with confirmed fertilizer

Mar 29 10:4618%(-2%)

The single most important development is the mixed signal from fertilizer markets: while urea has surged 68% globally and Iran is threatening a permanent toll system, US retail fertilizer prices have

Mar 28 20:4719%(-2%)

No material new geopolitical developments, but fertilizer market data actively contradicts the thesis: DAP down 7% and MAP down 5% in early 2026, continuing a multi-year decline from 2022 peaks. This

Mar 27 14:0232%(-13%)

KILL CONDITION TRIGGERED: Iran has partially lifted the Hormuz blockade, allowing non-enemy-linked ships to transit under security agreements — this directly undermines n1 (blockade occurs and persist

Mar 26 20:1552%(+2%)

The single most important development is confirmation that fertilizer cost spikes are now actively threatening U.S. spring crop planting, with reports that some farmers cannot obtain fertilizer at any

Mar 25 18:0149%(-11%)

No material change. The single event — crude oil $90 strike price moving from 87.5 to 83.5 — is a minor 4¢ drift on a market well below the thesis-relevant price levels ($100+) and has no meaningful b

Mar 24 06:3138%(+7%)

The blockade is confirmed real and in its third week — this is the most material development and fundamentally validates the thesis's top-level causal chain. Confidence rises from 0.315 to 0.38 as n1

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